Climate Change Timeline

The following information sets out a timeline of key events in the climate change story.

1824

French physicist Joseph Fourier recognises the importance of the atmosphere in trapping heat and influencing the temperature of the Earth. He is the first person to use the analogy of a greenhouse.

1859

Irish scientist John Tyndall identifies water vapour and carbon dioxide as heat-trapping gases.

1896

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius makes the first climate prediction recognising that doubling existing CO2 levels could lead to an increase in global temperature of 5oC and that halving CO2 could lead to an Ice Age.

1958

American scientist Charles David Keeling makes the first direct measurement of atmospheric CO2, on Mauna Loa, Hawaii (316 parts per million). The ‘Keeling Curve’ has since become a crucial tracker of carbon dioxide emission levels in our atmosphere.

1979

The first World Climate Conference voices concern that “continued expansion of man's activities on earth may cause significant extended regional and even global changes of climate”.

1988

The International Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”) is established by the United Nations to provide policy-makers with a source of information on the causes and impacts of climate change, and adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it. The IPCC is made up of some of the world’s leading climate scientists and advisors.

1990

The First Assessment Report of the IPCC is published: it states that human activities are significantly adding to concentrations of greenhouse gases and global temperatures have risen by 0.5 °C over the previous 100 years.

1997

The Kyoto Protocol sets binding targets for greenhouse gas reductions by industrialised nations of 5% against 1990 levels, over the five-year period 2008-2012.

1998

Globally it is the warmest year ever recorded.

2001

The IPCC states that most of the warming over the last 50 years is likely (greater than 66% probability) to have been caused by man-made greenhouse gases. This is a major turning point in how the world views climate change.

2003

Europe experiences its worst heatwave in 500 years, leading to an estimated 30,000 additional deaths.

2005

The Kyoto Protocol comes into force following its ratification by Russia. Globally it is the second warmest year on record. Global temperatures have risen by 0.74 °C over the last 100 years.

2007

The IPCC (Fourth Assessment Report) describes the warming of the climate system as “unequivocal” (as evident from observations), and most of the recent warming is very likely (>90% probability) to be the result of human activity. Arctic sea ice shrinks to its lowest extent since records began.

2008

CO₂ concentrations stand at 384 part per million, an increase of 37% since the start of the industrial era and higher than at any time in, at least, the last 850,000 years.

2009

The Copenhagen Climate Change Conference took place between 7-18^th December and is the culmination of two years worth of international negotiations to agree a new legally binding global deal to cut carbon emissions.

2025

A global temperature increase of around 0.4 °C above 2005 levels is expected.

Free Solar Panels - Consumer Advice

With the introduction of Feed-in-Tariffs (FIT) there are a number of organisations offering customers free solar PV panels. Typically, the company installing the solar PV panels will receive the income from the generation and export tariffs for the site, while the customer will benefit from reduced energy bills through the electricity generated on the site.

It should be noted that some companies may not offer the generated electricity for free, but instead offer it at a discounted price.

If you are considering a free solar PV offer, you should calculate what the annual benefit to you will be. If the electricity is to be free then the actual savings made will depend on how much electriciy you use, and how much of this is used during the day (see How much you could save).

If the electricity is to be supplied at a discounted price, then your savings will be even less and you should consider whether it’s worth going ahead.

The Energy Saving Trust supports the uptake of microgeneration so long as the technologies:

• are suitable for the property
• will lead to carbon and energy savings
• are installed by an MCS certificated installer using MCS certificated products.

How free solar PV offers work

• The company installs the solar panels on south, south-west or south-east facing roofs
• The company pays for the installation, connection charges and the maintenance of the panels
• The home owner benefits from free electricity from the panels (see How much you could save)
• Any electricity that is not used is exported into the local electricity network. Any income associated with this is likely to go to the installation company
• As the owner of the solar panels, the company receives the full Feed-in-Tariffs income (approx £1,000 per year for a typical 2.7kWp system)

These free solar PV offers are also referred to as "rent my roof space" schemes with the solar panel owner simply 'renting' the roof space from the customer.

How much you could save

The amount of money you will save depends on the proportion of the electricity generated that is used directly in the home, rather than exported to the grid. This will depend on a number of factors, including:

• How much electricity you use and when you use it
• Whether you are at home and using appliances during the day
• Whether you can change the time you run your appliances, for example running your washing when it's sunny (when solar PV is generating) instead of at night
• How big the solar PV installation is

The proportion used in the house may be as low as 25% for a typical PV system, but could be 50% or more for some users.* With a typical 2.7 kWp system this would mean likely annual savings of £70 to £140.

What to ask if offered free solar PV

Here is a list of key questions to ask if you are approached by a company offering free solar PV. Also included are some guidance notes we’ve drafted on the sort of responses you may get or what a good response might be.

Q. Who’s paying for the equipment? Is that in full? Who owns the equipment? (and is that all of the equipment – i.e. meter, wires inside building etc – or just equipment on the roof/in the back yard?)
We would expect anyone offering this scheme to pay for the equipment in full. This includes the solar panels, the inverter, metering and wiring of system. All equipment is likely to be owned by the company with many handing over ownership after 25 years.

Q. Who gets (a) the generation tariff, (b) the export tariff, (c) the ‘free’ electricity?
We expect the company providing the free technology to receive the full generation tariff and the export tariff (around £1,000 per year for a 2.7kWp system), and for you to benefit from the free electricity. If the company isn’t offering all the electricity for free then you should carefully consider whether it’s worth going ahead as benefits may be minimal. We estimate the amount of ‘free’ electricity to be around £70 for a typical system in a typical home, though this could be as high as £140 if you use a lot of electrical appliances during the day.

Q. Is the electricity used onsite and/or exported going to be metered, or will it be assumed that 50% (the deeming assumption in FIT) will be used?
It’s highly likely this amount will be deemed at 50%, as this is the standard unless an export meter is fitted. It is also likely that this amount will change in the near future when Smart meters are introduced.

Q. Who pays for maintenance and repairs (e.g. if the DC/AC inverter fails after 8 years)?
All maintenance and repairs should be paid for by the company installing the equipment, as they are likely to be the owner of the technology. You should check for this in any agreements.

Q. Who will insure the equipment? Against what?
It’s likely that you won’t own the equipment so you should not have to insure it. It is therefore up to the company to insure their equipment against fire, theft, wind damage etc.

Q. Who will be liable if the equipment causes damage to my family or my neighbours? Or if it causes damage to mine or my neighbours’ building or electrics?
This may be difficult to answer as you would have to prove that the damage was negligence on the part of the company installing the equipment e.g. faulty wiring. Any faulty work should be reported to the company immediately for them to rectify.
It is also crucial that the company checks that the roof is strong enough so a structural assessment should be carried out.

Q. Are you in effect lending me money to do this, either as a loan or a hire purchase deal? In which case: How long for? What is the annual equivalent interest rate (AER) on the money? Where is your consumer credit license? and; Can I have 7 or 14 days cooling off please (depending on whether the deal was done in person)?
For most free solar PV offers there will be no loan agreement as the equipment will be owned by the company. However, if you are being offered the system as a purchase in its own right (equipment and installation) then you should consider very carefully any loans being offered, and should seek independent financial advise before going ahead.

Q. What happens if I decide I want to pay off the remaining costs early? Can I have the FIT re-assigned to me?
This will depend on the contract drawn up between you and the company.

Q. What happens if I move house and the new owners don’t want to ‘inherit’ the deal?
It’s highly unlikely the company offering the panels will want to sell them back or allow you to sell along with house. Therefore the agreement will stick with the property and you will have to consider this when selling the property. This is one of the key questions you should ask anyone offering such scheme.

Q. Are you giving any performance guarantees for the equipment? (and what happens if it stops working and generating FITs for you? Is that your risk?)
This is the company’s risk as it relates to performance of the system and quality of products used. However most PV cells have manufacturer performance guarantees ranging from 20-25 years so this shouldn’t be a problem.

Q. Do I need to let my mortgage company and/or buildings insurer know that this installation has taken place? Will I need their permission?
We recommend telling your mortgage provider about this before going ahead.

Q. Who is responsible for addressing any planning issues or electricity distribution company notification requirements? Who pays any associated costs?
We expect the company providing the offer to be responsible for all of this. However, we recommend you inform your local planning office prior to going ahead. Solar PV is permitted development, read further information on Getting planning permission.

Q. What happens if the company which owns the equipment ceases to exist or goes into liquidation?
This will vary for each situation. However, because the system generates an income then the liquidators may decide to keep it running in order to pay off creditors.

Additional considerations

If you do decide to go ahead with a free solar PV offer, if is also worth considering the following:

• Maximise savings by using appliances such as washing machines and dishwashers during the day when the power provided by the solar PV is highest
• Avoid wasting energy by putting some cost effective energy efficiency measures in place. Read our Tips on how to stop wasting energy.

Renewable Energy Heating Grants available for UK households

Homeowners will soon be able to apply for government vouchers as part of a £15m scheme to provide funding for 25,000 homes. Households will be able to apply for substantial grants towards the cost of renewable heating systems, worth up to £1,250 for the biggest installations, starting from August 1.

 

Biomass boilers burning wood pellets, solar thermal panels for hot water heating, and both air and ground source heat pumps can all be installed with the grants, taking the form of government vouchers. The £15m scheme is part of the ministers' renewable heat support plans, and will provide funding for up to 25,000 households.

The households to be targeted are the 4m in England, Wales and Scotland not already heated by mains gas, and who therefore tend to use heating oil or electric fires to heat their homes, both of which tend to be more expensive and can lead to higher greenhouse gas emissions. However, Northern Ireland – where 70% of households use heating oil – is not included in the plans.

The grants will be set at £1,250 for a ground source heat pump; £950 for a biomass boiler; £850 for an air source heat pump; and £300 for solar thermal water heaters. On average, this should work out at about 10% of the total cost of the equipment and installation.

Greg Barker, climate change minister, said: "We're making it more economical for people to go green by providing discounts on the cost of eco heaters. This should be great news for people who are reliant on expensive oil or electric heating as the premium payment scheme is really aimed at them. Getting money off an eco heater will not just cut carbon emissions, it will also help create a market in developing, selling and installing kit like solar thermal panels or heat pumps."

Applications must be made through the government-funded Energy Saving Trust, and only households that have already put in place basic energy efficiency measures will be eligible.

Landlords will also be encouraged to access the grants to improve their housing stock, with £3m of the £15m on offer set aside for them.

Philip Sellwood, chief executive of the Energy Saving Trust, said research undertaken by the organisation had shown people valued having renewable heating installed. He said: "When people have the kit in their homes they really see the benefit. The main barrier that prevents people from taking the plunge is the up-front capital cost. This is a great start in overcoming this obstacle."

Once households have installed the renewable heating equipment, they may also receive further subsidy payments through the £860m renewable heat incentive when it is introduced next October, though this will depend on the detail of the scheme

Fiona Harvey, Environment Correspondent for the Guardian

Which? report highlights money-saving eco products 'you should avoid'

Consumer group identifies 10 products, including a voltage optimisation device and an eco shower head, that it thinks might not be the best ways to save money, by Rebecca Smithers (the Guardian, Wednesday 20th July 2011). With energy prices on the rise consumers may well be tempted by dozens of so-called eco products which claim to slash their energy, heating or water bills.

But an investigation by Which? magazine has identified 10 products which the consumer group claims might not offer worthwhile savings, including one they say could actually increase your energy use.

Some of the products went to the Which? laboratory for testing, while others went to a user panel for assessment. During the tests researchers found that one product actually did the opposite of what it claimed to do.

The investigation, 10 Eco Products You Don't Need, is published in the August issue of Which? later this week. By avoiding the products, it says, consumers will avoid wasting up to £535.

The most expensive product is a £300 VPhase voltage optimisation device, which claims to cut about 10% from your annual electricity bill by dropping the voltage in your home to 220V. Which? said it was "pricey and will take a long time to pay for itself".

Another voltage optimisation device, the Ecotek Energy Wizard, plugs into any socket in the home and also claims to cut up to 10% off your electricity bill (a saving of £60 on average). Which? said it was not worth spending £25 on it as: "Our lab test showed it didn't reduce the power used, and actually increased it when it was linked to a plasma TV, a hi-fi or an energy-saving light bulb."

The Mira Eco Shower Head, which costs £35, was another product highlighted by Which?. One user who didn't have high water pressure found that the water-saving shower head only provided a disappointing trickle of water. Which? said there were cheaper ways to save water, including spending less time in the shower and manually reducing the flow of the shower by not using it at the maximum setting.

An £8 window insulation kit from Stormguard, which claims to help reduce heat loss and provide "an economical alternative to double glazing" in the form of a transparent film was also on the list.

It said: "Our lab test found that the film made minimal difference … The film may need to be re-stretched periodically (with a hairdryer) which can be inconvenient. It can easily tear and you would have to buy a new pack if it did."

Which? also offered some alternatives. For example, it said the most cost-effective way to save heat was to stop it escaping in the first place by installing effective loft and wall insulation, which can even be installed free if you are in a priority group.

Vphase disputed the findings and defended its green claims. Head of marketing Matthew Cody said: "We can fully substantiate all our claims. The technology itself is proven to work and commercial versions are in use throughout the UK, used by companies such as Tesco, Asda, the NHS and DECC. The VPhase device is a domestic version of this technology, based on exactly the same principles."

Which? energy expert Syvia Baron said: "For the product to truly make a difference in terms of carbon savings, it will need to save more carbon when in use than it consumes during its production and disposal. And this is quite complicated to work out.

"As a general rule, if you buy an eco product and don't use it much, it is likely that you will have contributed to more carbon being burned than saved."

The 10 Eco Products Which? says consumers don't need

1. Freeloader Classic £40

2. Vphase Voltage Optimisation Device £300

3 + 4. Disposable Battery Chargers – Battery Wizard Deluxe and Battery Charger for Alkaline Disposable Batteries £30-£35

5. Ecotek Energy Wizard £25

6. Treegreen Energyegg £40

7. Standby Saver £17

8. Mira Eco Shower Head £35

9. Nordic Galant Shower Head £40

10. Window Insulation Kit £8

Funding a Green Future 2012 dates announced

After the success of Funding a Green Future 2011, Southend on Sea Borough Council is delighted to announce that its second national conference on the UK's transition to a low-carbon economy will take place on Tuesday 13th and Wednesday 14th March 2012.

Funding a Green Future 2012 will again take the form of a two day national conference placing the private and public sector at the forefront of the UK's transition to a low carbon and more sustainable future.  The conference intends to demonstrate how each of us can take a bold and innovative approach to meeting today's pressing environmental challenges while making huge financial savings.

The Council is now in the process of inviting guest speakers and would like to know which organisations and topics you would like discussed at next years conference. After all it is an event for the public sector by the public sector.

Please email adrianharris@southend.gov.uk to put forward your ideas or register your interest to attend by booking your place now at http://fagf2012.eventbrite.com/

You can now view the presentations from last years event by visiting http://www.slideshare.net/ibexearth

First Pictures from Funding a Green Future 2011

Fuel poverty now affects one in five households

Fuel poverty affects one in five households

More than a fifth of all households in the UK were affected by fuel poverty in 2009, government figures have shown.Higher fuel bills meant the number of homes affected rose by one million, or 22%, to 5.5 million, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) said.

A household is described as being in fuel poverty when it has to spend more than 10% of its income keeping warm. DECC predicts that the numbers for 2010 and 2011 will have increased because of further rises in the price of energy.

DECC stated that "between 2004 and 2009, energy prices increased: domestic electricity prices increased by over 75%, while gas prices increased by over 122% over the same period...and this led to the rise in fuel poverty seen over this period," it added.

The following links are to news stories that feature related stories to this article:

British Gas, owned by Centrica, is putting up its domestic gas and electricity prices from 18 August.
Gas bills will rise by an average of 18% and electricity bills by an average of 16% - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14077651

Read how Chris Huhne set out the government's plan for cutting the UK's carbon emissions, while keeping the lights on, at a price people can afford. Plus: all the reaction with Damian Carrington's live blog -

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/jul/12/electricity-reform-energy-nuclear-carbon

Big changes in the way Britain organises its electricity production were announced yesterday to meet the triple challenge of climate change, high bills for householders, and security of energy supply -

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/government-unveils-plan-to-cut-fuel-bills-2312643.html 

Energy Prices in need of reform by Chris Huhne

Energy prices: without reform, we’ll all be in the dark

By Chris Huhne (the article first appeared in the Daily Telegraph on 11th July 2011)

There is, as the managing director of Centrica said last week, “never a good time to raise prices”. Last week, the UK’s biggest energy company raised its gas prices by 18 per cent, and its electricity prices by 16 per cent. Centrica were following hot on the heels of Scottish Power with similar increases.

Winter may seem a long way off, but consumers are already feeling the chill as food and fuel prices erode household spending power. With 99 per cent of Britain’s energy supplied by just six companies, do not expect to find an easy escape.

Clearly, we must act. The first step is to understand the problem. Price hikes do not happen in a vacuum. They are symptomatic of fundamental ills in our energy system. Left untreated, they will return to damage our economy again and again.

Our fossil fuel habit leaves us hostage to global energy markets. The days of North Sea self-sufficiency are long gone. Today, we rely on imported fossil fuels to provide a third of our energy; in less than 15 years, it will be half.

This would not matter so much if we had a balanced energy portfolio where nuclear and renewables smoothed out volatile gas prices. But we are 25th out of 27 European countries for renewables, and have not built a nuclear power station since 1987.

 

Most of our electricity comes from gas-fired power stations, and 60 per cent of the world’s proven gas reserves are in Russia and the Middle East. Domestic bills track global prices. When wholesale gas prices rise, so does the cost of living in Britain.

Our ageing power stations also need replacing. Demand for electricity could double by 2050, as we opt for electric vehicles and heating. If we do not do something now, supply will not keep up and the lights will go out.

A quarter of Britain’s capacity will need replacing before the decade is out, as old coal and nuclear plants come to the end of their useful lives. It would not be safe, efficient or legal to prolong them.

Ofgem estimates that we need £110 billion of electricity investment by 2020. That is £30 million a day for 10 years – double the investment rate of the previous decade. It is the equivalent of 20 new power stations, together with the infrastructure to connect them to the grid.

This money has to come from somewhere. Not even the big six energy suppliers are big enough for the challenge. We need new blood in the electricity market. But businesses are not charities; they will not invest without a realistic expectation of return.

Inevitably, that will mean higher bills. If we were to leave the market as it is today, annual household electricity bills would rise by about the same amount as last week’s increase – about £200 higher by 2030.

What can be done? In the short run, we want consumers to take control. Energy companies must at present give consumers 30 days’ notice of price rises – rather than waiting more than two months before informing consumers that they are paying more for their energy. Ofgem calculates that consumers can save up to £200 a year by shopping around for the best deal. And just last month, I wrote to energy companies to ask them to provide better billing, letting customers compare their energy use – and the savings if they switched to cheaper tariffs.

For the most vulnerable consumers, such as the poorest pensioners, we are giving extra help. Our social discounts increase by 67 per cent compared with Labour. Nearly a million pensioners will benefit by £120 a year.

But we must also address the underlying problems of fossil fuel addiction and chronic dithering over investment. That is why the Coalition will today set out the most significant reform of our electricity market for 30 years. It will deliver secure, affordable energy for generations to come.

First, we will ensure the security of our energy supply by changing the way we contract for our back-up electricity. A “capacity mechanism” will make certain that when the nation’s kettles flick on at half-time, the system can cope.

Second, Chancellor George Osborne sent a clear message in the Budget that we should rely on clean electricity in future. His new carbon price floor will put a fairer price on carbon emissions and reinforce the underperforming EU scheme. This reduces uncertainty for investors, and provides an incentive to invest in low-carbon generation now.

Third, we will introduce a new system of long-term contracts to remove uncertainty and make low-carbon energy more attractive. Companies will be attracted to build new plants in our market because they will be able to plan for the price they will receive. Under our preferred option, if the market price is too low, they will get a top-up. But the good news for consumers is that if prices go sky-high, companies will pay back the difference.

Fourth, we will set a limit – an Emissions Performance Standard – on the pollution of carbon from new fossil-fuel power stations. This means that no new coal power can be built without a system to capture and store its carbon, but it will encourage new gas plants to keep the lights on in the short term.

Together, these reforms will secure our energy future. They will get us off the fossil fuel hook and on to clean, green and secure energy. Crucially, they will keep bills lower than they would be if we stuck with the existing arrangements.

Chris Huhne is Energy and Climate Change Secretary

Powering the UK: why the new electriciy plan is all about nuclear

The UK government has wanted new nuclear reactors for years, but a political contortion means explicit support is impossible. Result: a bewildering maze of measures

By Damian Carrington, the Guardian

Energy in the 21st century is about three Cs: carbon, cost and continuity of supply. But the UK government's major reform of the country's electricity market, due to be published on Tuesday, is fundamentally about only one thing: new nuclear power.

The plans are critically important. They represent a giant intervention in the UK's unusually free market and are intended to deliver the investment needed to meet the three Cs, that a free market would not provide. In other words, it's about keeping the lights on while cutting greenhouse gas emissions at a price that consumers can pay. The UK government decided long ago that new nuclear power stations are essential to deliver this.

In the last few days I have spoken to people in the power industry, energy academics, investors and green campaigners. All agree that the sprawling and complex maze of measures the government proposed has the central aim of getting new nuclear power stations built. Essential background reading on this is an article by Professor Catherine Mitchell at Exeter University, which deftly leads you through labyrinth.

I'll come to what to look out for in tomorrow's plan, but first I want to ask how the UK came to place such a big bet on nuclear? It started a decade ago, when the then Labour government opted for a 2010 renewable energy target of 10% (which was missed) instead of 20%, placing the emphasis instead on nuclear power. Government and the nuclear industry have been in each others pockets ever since, as shown by the shocking collusion to downplay the Fukushima disaster, just hours after it happened.

Fast forward to this government and you have the unhappy coupling of the Conservative's pro-nuclear stance and the LibDem's once stern opposition. The mutant offspring of this was the pledge that new nuclear could go ahead providing there was no subsidy by taxpayers. That political contortion is the direct cause of the complexity of the measures: they have to support nuclear without explicitly supporting nuclear.

Of course, the "no subsidy" claim is ludicrous in principle, given that taxpayers plays the same role for the nuclear industry as they did for the banks: they bail them out when things go wrong, an implicit subsidy.

But it's ludicrous in practice too. One of the measures in the reform package is a minimum (floor) price for carbon emissions, which favours nuclear so clearly as to have prompted a backbench LibDem revolt.

Incidentally, 'subsidy' is defined as "a sum of money granted by the state or a public body to help an industry or business keep the price of a commodity or service low." The fact that renewable energy generators might get a smaller slice of the same pie does not mean it is not a subsidy.

Let me be clear here. There is an argument, made by the government and others, that new nuclear power is absolutely necessary as low-carbon baseload, meaning state subsidies would be justified. If that argument carries the day, so be it. But burying the subsidies in an attempt to hide political embarrassment hinders proper debate.

It's also worth noting that the pro-nuclear carbon floor price was delivered by the government far sooner and at a higher rate than expected. Contrast that with the cut in support for both solar power and marine energy, and the delay in the main energy efficiency policy, the Green deal.

So, what to look out for on the reform plans expected on Tuesday?

What will it cost energy customers? Many existing UK coal and nuclear plants will close this decade, meaning investment in energy infrastructure has to go up from the current £8bn a year to £20bn a year. Much of that cost will be put on household bills. If the cost is high, businesses will worry that unhappy voters will mean future ministers don't stick to their policies, as has happened in the UK and across Europe before. If the cost looks acceptable to bill payers, the plans have a chance.

Who in the UK's big six energy companies is happy? Industry gossip says EDF, the French utility with the biggest stake in new nuclear, got exactly what they wanted in the proposals set out by the government. If EDF, with junior partner Centrica (who run British Gas) like the reform plans, then they are good for nukes. RWE npower and E.on also have bets on nuclear, but also big stakes in coal and gas, as well as high debt and opposition to nuclear at home in Germany. They warned last week that new nuclear stations in the UK could be too expensive for them. SSE has been the most supportive of renewable energy: if they are happiest, renewables have done well.

Is there any obligation to build renewables? Backers of renewables worry that the "contract for difference" option favoured by the government will not support the sector well, compared to the existing system in which suppliers are required to deliver a certain proportion of renewable electricity.

Are there incentives for energy efficiency? Cutting demand through efficiency measures is often cheaper than increasing the supply of low carbon electricity. But some observers worry that there will be few incentives in the reform package, beyond promising to look further at options. The government points to its Green deal: critics say this could have a big impact on gas demand, but not on electricity.

Is there help for new entrants to the market? Energy secretary Chris Huhne promised last week to "break the dominance of the big six" energy companies, which provide 99% of the UK's power. That may be easier said than done.

The one thing every participant in the energy debate will welcome is the end to at least some of the uncertainty about the UK's energy future, which had damaged investment in renewables in particular.

As it stands, it looks like nuclear power will be the big winner from the reform package. It's also likely that the headlines will be dominated by cost, and arguments about whether household bills will be rising by more or less than in a high-carbon scenario.

But will the government spring a surprise? Find out by following me (@dpcarrington) and my colleagues on Twitter, this blog and our news channel.

Rising Energy Prices and the UK's Energy Landscape

Rising Energy Prices and the UK's Energy Landscape

By Roger Harrabin, BBC Environment Analyst.

 

How will poor people cope with energy bills as the UK strives to meet its EU target of 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020? It's a question that's been raised by the CEO of Centrica, various economists and anti-green campaigners. And it'll doubtless be asked when the government shortly unveils its Energy White Paper.

But it's not quite the right question - for three reasons.

First because UK energy costs will go up anyway as we replace our ageing fossil fuel power fleet. It is yet another example of how we've been free-loading off the capital investments made unwittingly by our parents and grandparents - and now we have to fork out. This is clearly a problem as uSwitch note that 25% of people already have difficulty paying power bills already.

The second reason why the question is wrong is because no one I know outside government expects the UK to meet the renewables target anyway. My view is that ministers are keeping the target in place because if they drop it the schedule will fall even further behind.

The third reason is that energy prices are based on a complicated mix of factors.

Although an over-hasty rush for renewables will definitely land people with large bills, most analysts seem to agree that a good proportion of renewables in the mix is helpful in the long term. That is because it buffers households against the sort of prices spikes we would likely see if we were over-reliant on gas, which is subject to shocks as diverse as the Middle East Spring and the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

In this way renewable power can be seen as something like a fixed rate mortgage in which you maybe pay more, but you know that you can budget for it on a monthly basis.So, what are the implications for prices in 2020? It's a question I emailed to 30 experts. Perhaps not surprisingly I got very few replies. Most weren't willing to speculate.

Take this response from the veteran energy analyst Walt Patterson: "Everyone will be guessing (about future prices) and their guesses will depend on what they think policy should be. The legendary head of the Irish Electricity Supply Board, Patrick Moriarty, used to say: 'The price of electricity is what the government wants it to be'. That's still true."

But official bodies have to produce numbers - so some figures are available. The Climate Change Committee estimates that bills in 2020 may rise about 25%. The regulator Ofgem has a wide range of figures, largely dependent on the price of gas, stretching from 14% to 52%.

Sam Laidlaw, who runs the energy giant Centrica (which runs British Gas), told the Economist Energy Summit recently that his polling showed consumers weren't willing to face a 50% rise in bills - they would rather risk the lights going off.

It would be a brave government that tested the resolution of the public on future blackouts - especially as we are so plugged into our TVs and computers.But Ofgem tell me that Sam Laidlaw's analysis is somewhat misleading anyway as their 52% top end prediction was only in the case of a sudden price spike - they didn't expect it to continue for any length of time.

But whatever the price rise, it is clear that the government faces continuing controversy over bills, especially if - as widely predicted - its Green Deal for some insulation proves less successful than hoped.The Consumers Association, the charity trading as Which?, will soon be starting a campaign on energy. I'd been told it was a campaign against higher prices but it's more subtle than that. Louise Strong from the association said they wanted to engage the public in more of an open dialogue.

People, she said, wanted to keep the lights on and have low bills, but people were also resisting onshore windmills which would bring them relatively cheap energy. This, Which? says, is a long-term conversation.
In the short-term, it says, there must be more emphasis on helping the growing ranks of fuel poor and they hope the Electricity Market Reform White Paper will take steps in this direction.

The White Paper certainly has many roles to play, including underpinning the government's low-carbon goals with clear signals to the renewable power investors, and to the nuclear industry. It's all a very big ask - and perhaps hardly surprising that most of the experts I've spoken to about the proposed legislation don't have very high hopes.

Introducing the Looking for Carbon Blog

Welcome to the 'Looking for Carbon' Blog, which looks to provide organisations with the latest information about the UK's transition to a low-carbon economy. The blog has been established after the success of Southend on Sea Borough Council's 'Funding a Green Future 2011', a free two day national conference for the public sector on the UK's low carbon future. The Conference featured speakers from the Environment Agency, the Local Government Group, the Carbon Trust, the Committee on Climate Change, 10:10 and the event's charity partner Carbon Leapfrog.

Southend on Sea Borough Council has recently confirmed that it will be hosting its 'Funding a Green Future' conference on an annual basis and next year's event has recently been confirmed to take place during Climate Week on Tuesday 13th and Wednesday 14th March 2012. You can already register your free place by visiting the following link: http://fagf2012.eventbrite.com/

The blog will feature the latest news stories and articles about the transition to the low-carbon economy, which will include information about renewable energy projects/technologies, low-carbon transport, energy efficiency and carbon reduction. There will also be a regular update about Funding a Green Future 2012, and this will include details about speakers, sponsors and our charity partners. It is hoped that the information provided will help to encourage organisations and individuals to embrace the low-carbon transition, reduce carbon emissions and improve the UK's overall environmental performance. 

Enjoy the blog...